Before a rebound, Emerging Trends says the following needs to happen:
Private real estate markets need to correct-–lenders must force distressed owners to become motivated sellers.
- Debt capital needs to flow-–lenders will need to learn to deal in a more stringent regulatory landscape. The commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market must "reformulate."
- Regulators need to restore confidence in the securities market. The government will insert itself into overseeing mortgage securitization markets. Systemic overhaul promises more measured debt flow.
- The economy needs to improve. Falling demand for space won’t affect real estate markets severely until 2009.
- The housing condition is no better and shows no signs of recovering quickly. For lenders, the "subprime mess is the tip of the iceberg." Stricter lending standards and the weak economy will continue to drain the homebuyer market. "Forget the quick fix!"
And I will give the ULI kudos for recognizing the value, the importance, the goodness(?) of housing within existing urban areas near transit lines. Now I just need my main man Obama to throw some real bail-out style cash to Amtrak and this country's struggling transit systems, and stop building new highways every god damn day. Of course a new and improved transit system anywhere is only good if we wake up and review our land use policies, but sweet jesus, i'm on my way to brunch...